US100: Daily 200 EMA and Wave Count Agree on the Low

US100 fell for weeks straight into wave v of (c). While it was falling, two things were lining up at the same time, and most traders watching the candles alone never saw it.

The Daily 200 EMA said stop. The wave count said the same thing at the same time. Wave (c) of Y completing right into that dynamic support isn't a coincidence.

One signal alone is noise. A moving average touch by itself means nothing. A wave count finishing by itself means nothing. Two independent signals agreeing on the same zone is where the reversal gets built.

Why does the Daily 200 EMA matter here

The chart shows the EMA rising gently underneath price for months, climbing from the July lows into August. By the time price dropped into the wave (c) of Y low near 27,093, the EMA had risen up to meet it almost exactly where the decline ran out of room.

That's not a level anyone drew in hindsight. It was already there, tracking upward, waiting.

What does the wave count say about wave (c) of Y

Zoom out on this chart and the whole decline from the (b) high near 29,897 is labeled as a five-wave impulse into wave (c). Inside that impulse, wave i, ii, iii, and iv are all marked before the final wave v low.

Wave (c) of Y is the terminal leg of a larger correction. When a five-wave decline like this completes right at a rising 200 EMA, the location and the structure are telling the same story from two different angles.

What's happening in the impulse up from the low

The move off that low is already tracing its own i-ii-iii-iv-v on the 4H chart. Wave iv found support right where a wave 4 should, above the wave i high, no overlap, structure intact.

That's not decoration. A wave 4 holding above wave 1 is one of the basic rules of impulse structure, and here it held exactly where it needed to. Price then pushed into a new wave v, extending the impulse higher.

The blue projection on the chart shows Cetin's expected path from here: a pullback after this impulse completes, then a resumption higher toward the 30,000 region and beyond. The invalidation for the broader bullish case sits at 27,093.2, the wave v low itself. A break below that level would undercut the entire premise that the low is in.

What this means for reading NAS100 right now

NAS100 is turning. Not because of hope, and not because one indicator flashed a signal. The Daily 200 EMA and the wave count both pointed at the same floor, independently, and price respected it.

When structure and location agree twice in the same chart, once at the (c) of Y low and again at the wave iv low above wave i, that's the kind of confluence worth paying attention to. The 4H impulse is still building, and the next test is whether wave v extends cleanly before any pullback begins.